It's always tempting to go "chalk" with your March Madness men's bracket picks and to choose multiple No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four, but just how many top seeds should you pick to reach the Final Four this year?
All four No. 1 seeds made the 2025 Final Four — the second time ever that happened — so it would be wise to predict that at least one of this year's No. 1 seeds gets tripped up before then.
Of course, there is no perfect formula to calculate which teams or seeds will advance to the Final Four — just look back at the 2008 and 2025 NCAA tournaments (all four No. 1 seeds advanced) and the 2011 NCAA tournament (teams seeded No. 3, 4, 8 and 11 made it). Or even 2023, when the Final Four had No. 4, No. 5, No. 5 and No. 9 seeds.
However, history tells us you should *probably* pick two No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four if you're looking for a cut-and-dried rule regarding top seeds.
Here's a breakdown of how many No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
| Number of No. 1 seeds to make Final Four | Frequency | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | 5% |
| 3 | 4 | 10% |
| 2 | 15 | 37.5% |
| 1 | 16 | 40% |
| 0 | 3 | 7.5% |
If you pick two No. 1 seeds to make the Final Four and only one No. 1 seed makes it, you have a 50 percent chance of picking the right team (at least one No. 1 seed made the Final Four in 37 of 40 tournaments since 1985). If multiple top seeds advance to the Final Four, your chances are even better of picking the right teams. On average, 1.65 No. 1 seeds make the Final Four each NCAA tournament each year. While the most common occurrence is only one No. 1 seed making the Final Four (16 of the 40 years since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985), two or more No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four in 21 NCAA tournaments. For that reason, it's better to error on the side of picking perhaps one too many No. 1 seeds than one too few.
So, if choosing two No. 1 seeds is the best option based on historical averages, what should you do with your other two Final Four picks?
A No. 2 seed has made the Final Four 32 times in the 40 years there has been a 64- or 68-team tournament, which is a little shy of once per year on average. Pick a No. 2 seed.
With the fourth team, take a flier on a team seeded as a No. 3 or lower. As a reminder, at least one team seeded seventh or lower has made the Final Four in 10 of the last 12 NCAA tournaments.
| Seed | Number of Final Four Appearances |
|---|---|
| No. 1 | 66 |
| No. 2 | 32 |
| No. 3 | 17 |
| No. 4 | 15 |
| No. 5 | 9 |
| No. 6 | 3 |
| No. 7 | 3 |
| No. 8 | 6 |
| No. 9 | 2 |
| No. 10 | 1 |
| No. 11 | 6 |
Whether you decide to pick one No. 1 seed or two top seeds to make it to the Final Four, it's definitely worth picking at least three teams that are a top-four seed in their region. Seed Nos. 1-4 have taken up 130 of the 160 spots in the Final Fours since 1985 — that's more than 81 percent. And the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds have taken 98 spots, or more than 61 percent of all semifinal spots since 1985.
